Round up #69:
The key rumor here is that Amazon may be launching the Kindle in Japan in perhaps April of this year.
That’s not necessarily including the Kindle Fire, of course.
Japan is an interesting market…there is a lot of competition there. While they do consume a lot of mass culture there, what’s big and not big from the USA is more mixed than you might guess. I loved a story when the recent big screen Star Trek was released there about how even hardcore geeks in Japan didn’t know the original series. They know so many things, but they generally didn’t know that one. Perhaps a Star Trek anime would have helped.
I wrote about the reaction to Amazon’s 4th Quarter 2011 report. As I guessed, the stock did drop quite a bit at first. On January 31st, the close was $194.44. On February 1st, the close was $179.46. That was a significant drop.
I thought it might recover by Friday, February 3rd.
Well, that was overly optimistic.
However, I wasn’t wrong about the direction of the stock…my guess on the speed of the recovery was just too high. As I write this, it’s been as high as $193.57 today.
So, it might make it today, but at any rate, it has been close to where it was before the report.
I think short-termers tend to react pretty quickly, but over time, you can see how Amazon is trending. It’s up more than ten percent for the year so far. They are in a heavy investment period right now, and it’s unlikely they’ll ever be in a place where they aren’t investing…but I think they’ll reap benefits from the increase in Prime members in the next couple of years.
“The Kindle Multiplier”
One of my most valuable and prolific sources sent me a link to this story in a private e-mail:
I recommend the article by Jim Milliot. The article reports statistics from a Codex Group survey.
No surprise to me here, but people who own Kindles buy more stuff from Amazon than people who don’t.
It’s interesting, because they compare buying habits of RSK (Reflective Screen Kindle…anything but a Kindle Fire), Kindle Fire owners, non-Kindle owners…and people who own both a Kindle Fire and an RSK.
8% of the people in the survey own both a Kindle Fire and an RSK (I’m just going to call them “Amaphibians” for now to make this easier…portmanteau of “Amazon” and “amphibian”…at home in both worlds, reflective and backlit). 3% own just a Kindle Fire.
Naturally, many Amaphibians owned an RSK before…so they may not see their purchases increase as much.
Still, the article makes it clear: it’s to Amazon’s advantage for people to own Kindles. That doesn’t mean, it my opinion, that they should give them away for free, as some people suggest. I don’t think that someone who got one for free would automatically have the same buying habits as someone who paid more than $50 for one. I think it wouldn’t be justified to extrapolate market increase from lowered device prices to zero device price. It’s like counting every pirated book as a lost sale…that only works if the person who got the pirated copy would otherwise have bought the book. Pirating is bad, in my opinion, but it doesn’t help a case to confuse the numbers.
Kindle Killer blahblahblah
For one device to kill another, it has to cannibalize the sales to a point where the first device can’t survive. You don’t have to cannibalize one of your peers when there is a plentiful food supply.
The “food supply” in this case is made up of purchases. If there was a flat number of tablet buyers of, say, ten million, and a new product took over three million of those, that would mean there were only seven million left for the devices already in the market.
That’s simply not the way it is working right now…tablet sales are significantly increasing. You could introduce a great new product and not have it significantly cannibalize any existing device’s sales. There would just be additional sales.
You may hear quite a bit about the new ASUS tablet:
It may, in fact, be a very good product and sell quite well.
Even if it’s the greatest piece of hardware ever, though, that doesn’t mean that every potential Kindle Fire buyer switches to the ASUS. That’s true even if it is vastly better than the Fire (and I don’t know enough to know). That’s true even if you can read Kindle store books on it.
People don’t buy a product just because of the product. They also buy it based on the company, and on their experiences with that company.
If McDonald’s had the exact same meal as a fancy dancy prestige restaurant for half the price, would everybody go to McDonald’s for Valentine’s Day?
Part of the reason you go to the restaurant is for the experience…and for the customer service. Sure, the waiter might be haughty, but you don’t have to bus your own dishes.
I’m not suggesting Amazon is overpriced…in the case of this ASUS device, it sounds like it will be more expensive than the Fire (although less than the iPad…but that’s not hard to be for an Android tablet).
I’m saying that one reason people buy Amazon products is they like Amazon. That doesn’t change if another great product comes out.
I gave my love a pictures of daisies…but the frame was kind of extravagant
I got my Significant Other a Kindle Fire for Valentine’s Day. We had been planning to get another one…I’ve sort of taken over the netbook for blogging, meaning my SO doesn’t get to check e-mail and such as often.
I did a lot of setting up: pictures of our family in the Gallery, downloaded songs, installed apps…and I set up Pulse to show my blogs. I sent this video in e-mail, to demonstrate that capability:
I got this skin from Decalgirl:
I mentioned yesterday, my SO’s favorite flower is the daisy.
Oh, and I’d been smart: I didn’t change the name of the Kindle until Valentine’s Day morning. That turned out to be good thinking: my SO would have seen a revealing name on Amazon a few days earlier.
The gift was well-received.
I feel lucky every day of my life. My SO is a big part of that.
I thank you readers for supporting my writing in a way that makes it possible for me to buy an “expensive frame” like that.
Hope you had a great day yesterday…and today, and tomorrow, and…
This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog.