Crouch and Konrath, who are both successful authors (especially with e-books) could be right…but it’s very hard to judge what is specifically affecting sales, and how it would apply to others.

For example:

* Konrath had been traditionally published. Is social media more effective for staying in touch and deepening relationships than it is for establishing new ones?

* Would social media be as effective for a bad book as it is for a good one? That may seem like an odd question. A bad book presumably wouldn’t sell as well as a good one, but if social media doubles the sales for a good book, would it double the sales for a bad one?

* Does genre matter? Would a “literary fiction” book be helped as much as a thriller or a romance?

* Does having a series matter?

* How does what you write in social media affect it?

* How does how good you are at social media affect it? In other words, is a good tweeter or blogger benefited more than a bad one, regardless of the quality of the book?

It’s quite complex. If “every avenue” is exercised, it’s hard to tell which ones contribute how much to success. It also means you have to spend a lot of time promoting, rather than writing. One avenue, for example, is personal appearances at conventions and such. Another would be local bookstore signings. Yet another would be traveling to appear on local radio shows. How does one balance the time involved versus the benefits? Social media promotion is certainly more convenient…is it equally (or more or less) effective?

The basic thing for me is that we don’t know that doing x results in y amount of book sales a this point. We can’t tell a person that we can guarantee that they can make a living as a writer by following a particular formula.