The Year Ahead: 2021

The Year Ahead: 2021

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

Taking a look at last year’s post,

The Year Ahead: 2020

I wasn’t expecting to do very well…who could have predicted almost anything that happened in 2020? 😉

Let’s look:

Alexa makes big strides in sounding natural

“I’ll count this as success if: Amazon announces progress and a major program around natural sounding speech and/or Alexa passing the Turing Test is in a news story and/or some poll or study shows that people think Alexa sounds natural.”

Interestingly, Rohit Prasad, the “Alexa boss”, just had a statement out today (as reported in fudzilla) arguing that the Turing Test itself is obsolete:

Turing test is out of date – fudzilla.com

It’s a legitimate point, that fooling humans (which is what the Turing Test measures) doesn’t equal intelligence. I’ll ponder that one: it does make it seem like we are saying that human intelligence is the only intelligence…our dogs and other NHAs (Non-Human Animals) might disagree.

I’m going to take this as a hit. Amazon talked a lot about speech scientists making a difference. Amazon Connect referenced analyzing rhythm, pitch, or tone, tying specifically into what I mentioned about “artifical empathy”. There is certainly more room to improve, but this was a year of great progress. I’ll also note Alexa’s ability to now translate spoken conversations: that’s another piece of this.

Search for speech articles in Amazon’s press releases

I did think there would be more celebrity voices besides Samuel L. Jackson in 2020…while some other publishers have done some things, I believe Amazon still just has SLJ.

An Amazon published books wins a major non-genre prize

“The Booker, the Nobel Prize, National Book Award…something like that. They’ve already won some genre-specific prizes. This feels risky, but with more established authors striking deals with Amazon, it seems possible.”

While I’m not sure, I’m going to call this a miss. If you noticed it happened, let me know!

About Us at Amazon Publishing

Something specific is announced as a milestone for Amazon using robots

“This might be a fulfillment center completely staffed by robots (although they could be managed by humans…robots would do the labor, which is the origin of the word). It could be in the area of AI writing or curating books for Amazon (that’s still a robot: tech doing the work humans have done). There could be an Alexa channel of some kind, where the AI picks the content. To get credit for this, I’d want either Amazon to announce it or for it to be a “major” news story: let’s say one reported by a mainstream news source.”

I’m going to count this as a hit. They did announce an upcoming fulfillment center where humans work alongside robots, but not quite in the way I said.

Amazon press release on 750,000 square foot robotics fulfillment center

New safety rules were just issued by the FAA that may enable Amazon drone deliveries (the drones will be in some sense autonomous…they won’t be actively piloted by a human).

GeekWire article on FAA rules

However, the autonomous Zoox taxis (street legal! 75m/120km an hour!) seem to fulfill my prediction:

Motor Trend article on Zoox

Two out of three for 2020? I’ll take it!

Now, a quick look at my speculations. I figure these are more like guesses.

• Amazon does something with Books-A-Million, possibly even buying it: MISS
• Lizzo does something with Amazon, maybe in conjunction with Prime Day: HIT (the singer announced a “First Look Deal” in August
• Amazon does still do a speech-to-text (dictation) program of some kind (that would be despite some specific objection to it): MISS (at least, I haven’t seen it)
• Something specific happens with Amazon fighting climate change: while they have been doing some ecological things all along, this is seen as a big move, such as switching to electric delivery vans: PARTIAL HIT (Amazon is specifically shifting to electic vehicles in India for “last mile delivery”. They’ve spoken about others, too)
• Prime Video starts focusing more on obscure, cult, sort of less prestige content. That’s in part to counter Disney+: more R-rated content becomes available, more low-budget genre fare (often decades old). Also countering that, Amazon announces an anthology series based on classic (specifically, public domain) short stories. Very famous creators are involved: HIT (This has absolutely happened…I’ve noted it several times throughout the year. In addition to Disney+, it counters other newer players, like HBO Max and Peacock. There wasn’t to my knowlede the anthology series, though, but that could still happen I guess that makes this a PARTIAL HIT)
• Elon Musk & Amazon (or Jeff Bezos) do something together…maybe something as simple as Alexa in the Cybertruck, but we see it in the news: MISS (And you might say that I’m a dreamer… 😉 )
• Amazon does something specific for video production for creators. Last year, I suggest a platform for publication, but this could just be automated video editing: HIT (I didn’t think about this being specific for advertisers, but “Video creative builder”, now in Beta fits the bill Video creative builder (amazon.com). I think it came out this year)
• I’m feeling something big happening in South America for Amazon…like an HQ: MISS (at least, I haven’t seen it…things were happening in Sao Paolo, but only along with things happening other places)
• I’d still like to see Amazon do something specific with preserving and/or making available public domain books MISS (but I’m still hoping!)
• Amazon uses AI to analyze books in some new way. Maybe it’s a way to recover information, like querying books. Maybe it produces short summaries of books. This is challenged by publishers MISS

Let’s try again for three predictions and ten speculations:

Amazon officially begins drone/autonomous deliveries

They’ve been working on this for years, but it feels like the pieces are finally falling into place. This will also be seen as more important because of contactless delivery during the current (and future) pandemics. That should help clear the way and politically, it seems more plausible. It could be through a flying drone, or one that drives on the sidewalk/street (like through Zoox). It would be interesting if this was also specifically tied into vaccine deliveries, maybe tied into Amazon Pharmacy. Amazon might be the way to get the newer vaccines which don’t require super cold storage to rural areas. Note that this doesn’t necessarily have to happen in the USA to be a hit.

Alexa’s translation capability has some practical effect that gets it into the news/press release

I’m picturing Alexa’s new translation ability saving a life in a medical emergency or helping a lost kid in the woods, something like that. The person in distress speaks a language other than the rescuers/samaritan. I could also see it in a political setting, or maybe used by police in a hostage, or even on an aircraft.

Alexa becomes available in someone else’s virtual reality setting

Alcove is a VR experience when you are in a house. They already have tie-ins to other businesses/organizations. I was looking around today and it was funny, but it didn’t feel entirely right because there wasn’t an Alexa/Echo device. 🙂 I’d like to see Amazon get more whole-heartedly into VR (another pandemic accomodation enhanced market), but this would be another way to do it.

On to speculations!

• Alexa’s translation ability can be used with text-to-speech with a book written in a different language. You have a book (or maybe article) written in Spanish, it reads it out to you in English
• Jerry Seinfeld does something significant with Amazon: he might be a great new celebrity voice! I still also think Scarlett Johansson might become a celebrity voice. Celebrity voices might be slowed down by pandemic effects, though…not seen as that high a priorty
• Amazon does something really significant with video meetings, like Zoom and Teams. I don’t mean starting their own service, but there’s an Amazon something that can be integrated into the meeting…maybe something with virtual backgrounds
• There becomes an electronic Amazon interface to shopping/information that can be placed in a lot of different places…it’s a screen, maybe a flexible e-ink type screen. This can go into underserved areas, or put into somewhere temporary, like an outdoor event (those may return later this year). It doesn’t have to be in place this year, but it would have to be announced to be a hit
• A color Kindle! Color e-books readers have started to get into the market, and I do think we could see this
• More situation specific Alexa services: they have something now for the hospitality industry, this would make a lot of sense for medical settings, for example
• There’s an interesting group of things falling into the public domain in 2021, things from the year 1925. That includes The Great Gatsby, Hemingway’s In Our Time, and Agatha Christie’s The Secret of Chimneys. Amazon will do something with this: I’m thinking adaptations of some kind, not necessarily visual media, but annotations/follow ons?
• Another major retailer buy…something like 7-11. I’m thinking the convenience market…those places are hard-hit and might be easy pickings before things come back
• Expansion of Amazon Explore. We gave that as a gift to someone and I think this idea of non-profits/small providers being able to book live virtual experiences is going to get bigger. I’ve suggested to Loren Coleman that this could be perfect for the International Cryptozoology Museum. I’d pay $50 for that experieence! Travel will still be very hard this year, especially abroad. It’s a way to keep places like that in business. I think they lower the barrier to participation in some way
• Jeff Bezos becomes officially involved in some advisory capacity or something like that with the federal government. That’s going to be a very different relationship in 2021

Any predictions from you? Feel free to let me and my readers know by commenting on this post.

Some of my readers are already in 2021 at the time of publication: Happy New Year!

Join thousands of readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project!

Bufo’s Alexa Skills

* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get. 

Shop ’til you help! 🙂

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other organizations, begin your Amazon shopping from a link on their sites: Amazon.com (Smile.Amazon.com)

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The Year Ahead: 2020

The Year Ahead: 2020

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

Taking a look at last year’s post,

The Year Ahead: 2019

I did pretty well…maybe not as well as the year before, but still, I’m satisfied.

I missed on my first prediction:

Alexa gets the ability to send books to your devices

Miss. As far as I can tell (Amazon doesn’t always promote things), this didn’t happen the way I suggested. I wanted a way to manage my content: to send books I’d already bought to my devices. I thought that might come through a Goodreads skill (that’s what apps for Alexa are called), but there isn’t one. I think this coming year, 2020, may be more about software and services than hardware (not that there won’t be new hardware), so maybe that’s still coming.

UPDATE: Thanks to reader Shari Brownlee! This gets changed to a Hit. As I mentioned, Amazon doesn’t always promote things much, but on the Manage My Content and Devices page, Shari pointed out this: “Using Alexa, you can now send ebooks, audiobooks, personal documents, etc., to your Kindle or remove them permanently from your library. Try saying “Alexa, manage my content”.” I tested it, and it didn’t work well for me…I used my typical test title, Alice in Wonderland…but I have multiple versions of that, and it asked me to identify which one I wanted to send. I tried to get it to give me options, but even though I was talking to an Echo Show (where I thought it could show me titles on the screen), I couldn’t get it to do that. Still it exists, so it counts.

Amazon opens more brick-and-mortars, including an Amazon Go cashierless store for the public near the HQs

Hit. I mentioned the 4-Star stores (My trip to an Amazon 4-Star Store), AmazonBooks (The new Amazon Books opened in Walnut Creek California today…and I was there!), and Amazon Experience Centers. I specifically said, “If there is a Go store open to the public near an HQ, I’ll count this as a hit next year.” There are now multiple Amazon Go stores open to the public in at least four cities…including Seattle, one of the HQs. The other three cities are Chicago, New York, and San Francisco.

Amazon Go page

While not calling it HQ3, Amazon announces more localized complexes

Hit. They opened multiple locations in New York (where the HQ2 ran into opposition), Salt Lake City, and more. These got quite a bit of publicity, so it wasn’t just that they opened a regular fulfillment center.

Two out of three for the predictions…not too bad. 😉 UPDATE: I actually hit three out of three, as reader Shari Brownlee pointed out to me! That’s better than “not too bad”. 😉

Now, let’s quickly run through my “speculations” from last year:

• Alexa speaks more languages: hit. She speaks German, several dialects of English, several dialects of Spanish, French (both Canadian and from France), Italian, and more
• Amazon does something with Max Headroom: Miss. This was really random, and just didn’t happen 🙂
• The Department of Justice investigates Amazon for trade practices: Hit.
• Amazon invests in a book preservation program: Miss. Well, as far as I know: I didn’t see any announcements on this
• Alexa wearables: hit. This was a super duper hit, with a ring, earbuds, glasses frames, and more
• Amazon introduces or partners with a Microsoft Teams/Slack type business collaborative suite: miss. I didn’t see that happen
• Over 10,000 Alexa-enabled devices: hit. I’ve seen the number 28,000, and there may be more now
• Amazon starts a podcasting platform. Miss. There are more podcast options for Alexa, but they didn’t set up a new publishing platform
• Amazon does an easy video publishing platform. Miss. I was picturing something like Alexa taking a video and then you could verbally share it with people
• Amazon-branded robot. Miss. Interestingly, my new Vector robot (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*), a gift from our adult child & significant other, has Alexa built into it. It can’t do quite a few Alexa things (it won’t read me my Kindle books or play music), but it does quite a bit…it can even speak in Samuel L. Jackson’s voice
• I called one a bonus, that we’d get stories on Amazon’s healthcare initiative, and we did, but I figured that was so obvious I wouldn’t take credit

Oh, and I think it was back in 2015 that I predicted Amazon would do a news app…that happened this year. 🙂 I’m sometimes ahead of the curve with them…

Now, the predictions for this year:

Let me start out by saying that this may feel like a “building” year. They introduced so many out there hardware things this year, that I think that will be quieter (but there could be at least one new market-creating item). Also, in the USA, it’s a Presidential election year. While Amazon certainly thinks long term, they (and many other companies), may want to sit back a bit to see what happens. The outcome of this election may make a difference to the business climate, including regulation. I am very specifically not saying one or the other would be better (I stay away from politics in this blog), but simply point out that the two approaches are likely to be different, which may make companies cautious to commit until that outcome is known.

Alexa makes big strides in sounding natural

That’s stated pretty generally, but I’ll set some sort of parameter. This is complex, and probably needs to significantly include artificial empathy. Amazon may announce an artificial empathy program. The celebrity voices (there will be more than just Samuel L. Jackson…I’ve speculated that one might be Jackson’s Marvel castmate, Scarlett Johannson) will help with that. It is possible that there will be a story saying that Alexa has passed the Turing Test (people not being able to identify whether it is Alexa or a human being talking to them after speaking to each for 5 minutes…that’s a simplified version of it. If the Turing Test gets mentioned as Alexa having passed it, I’ll count it). I’ll count this as success if: Amazon announces progress and a major program around natural sounding speech and/or Alexa passing the Turing Test is in a news story and/or some poll or study shows that people think Alexa sounds natural.

An Amazon published books wins a major non-genre prize

The Booker, the Nobel Prize, National Book Award…something like that. They’ve already won some genre-specific prizes. This feels risky, but with more established authors striking deals with Amazon, it seems possible.

Something specific is announced as a milestone for Amazon using robots

This might be a fulfillment center completely staffed by robots (although they could be managed by humans…robots would do the labor, which is the origin of the word). It could be in the area of AI writing or curating books for Amazon (that’s still a robot: tech doing the work humans have done). There could be an Alexa channel of some kind, where the AI picks the content. To get credit for this, I’d want either Amazon to announce it or for it to be a “major” news story: let’s say one reported by a mainstream news source.

I have my doubts about my success on those!

Now, let’s do my speculation. These are fun for me, and they are much more guesses.

• Amazon does something with Books-A-Million, possibly even buying it
• Lizzo does something with Amazon, maybe in conjunction with Prime Day
• Amazon does still do a speech-to-text (dictation) program of some kind (that would be despite some specific objection to it)
• Something specific happens with Amazon fighting climate change: while they have been doing some ecological things all along, this is seen as a big move, such as switching to electric delivery vans
• Prime Video starts focusing more on obscure, cult, sort of less prestige content. That’s in part to counter Disney+: more R-rated content becomes available, more low-budget genre fare (often decades old). Also countering that, Amazon announces an anthology series based on classic (specifically, public domain) short stories. Very famous creators are involved
• Elon Musk & Amazon (or Jeff Bezos) do something together…maybe something as simple as Alexa in the Cybertruck, but we see it in the news
• Amazon does something specific for video production for creators. Last year, I suggest a platform for publication, but this could just be automated video editing
• I’m feeling something big happening in South America for Amazon…like an HQ
• I’d still like to see Amazon do something specific with preserving and/or making available public domain books
• Amazon uses AI to analyze books in some new way. Maybe it’s a way to recover information, like querying books. Maybe it produces short summaries of books. This is challenged by publishers

Okay, that’s three predictions and ten speculations…lucky 13! Virtual fingers crossed!

Any predictions from you? Feel free to let me and my readers know by commenting on this post.

Some of my readers are already in 2020 at the time of publication: Happy New Year!

Join thousands of readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project!

Bufo’s Alexa Skills

* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get. 

Shop ’til you help! 🙂

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other organizations, begin your Amazon shopping from a link on their sites: Amazon.com (Smile.Amazon.com)

The Year Ahead: 2019

The Year Ahead: 2019

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

Taking a look at last year’s post, I did well:

The Year Ahead: 2018

Amazon VAM (Virtual/Augmented/Mixed/Merged Reality…XR)

Hit. Part of what I said was “It might be through an experience (which is what apps for VAM are called), or it might be through some sort of VAM browser system that lets us watch it like we would on a computer.” We got the latter, as I reported in this post on July 29th:

Round up #177: Project Vesta, Amazon financials

We can now watch Prime Video in VR “like we would on a computer”.

Amazon opens a localized site for the Middle East

Hit. I mentioned the Arabic language as being important, and Amazon announced a big Arabic initiative on June 25th: press release . While they didn’t actually open an Amazon-branded site for the Middle East for Kindle they made them officially available through souq.com, as reported in this Tech Radar post by Abbas Ali | press release on Arabic language. That puts Kindles into the United Arab Emirates

Amazon curtails personal documents for Kindle

Miss (yay!). I don’t think I’ve seen anything significant on this.

Still, two out of three ain’t bad. 😉

Those were my major announcements: now, let’s take a look at my speculations (which I don’t count in my lookback, since those feel much more uncertain…but they often still come out okay).

• “Amazon announces several frontrunners for its new headquarters (HQ2). They include deep South and East Coast cities, and at least one in Canada. We may not know officially by the end of 2018 which one will “win”…my guess is that it will be an East Coast city, like Boston…” | I’d say I was reasonably close on that…they picked New York and northern Virginia
• “More deals are announced for Alexa in cars” Hit, including Echo Auto (at AmazonSmile*)
• “Alexa experience creators are given new ways to monetize…and advertising is even a possibility”. Hit. CNBC story by Lauren Hirsch and Michelle Castillo
• “Jeff Bezos may start focusing on something other than Amazon. I don’t see that as a retirement, certainly, but maybe a big charity initiative and a reduction of time on “day to day” Amazon duties. Speculation begins on someone stepping more into the general CEO role…and diversity is a positive part of the story” | I think this is a miss
• “Amazon might buy a pharmacy chain…” | Hit. They bought PillPack, which is close enough press release 
• “Amazon does something notable in Africa” | Hit. They opened AWS Data Centers press release
• “As to Kindles…I proposed that the cycle might be one evolutionary year (2017 was that) alternating with a revolutionary one, which would mean we’d get a new model in 2018. I’m not sure about that, though. Won’t surprise me if at least one of the models is retired in 2018…I could most likely see that being the Voyage, but I don’t think the Oasis has been a sales hit.” | I’m taking this as a hit, but I’d listen to arguments. The newest Paperwhite is a new model, with waterproofing…although it doesn’t have a new name. The Voyage is essentially retired, not being offered new from Amazon
• “How about…Amazon entering the education game? By that I mean that they offer classes you can take through them. Not to replace a college, but on specific topics…maybe publishing, maybe programming for Alexa, perhaps some other not-specifically Amazon related things (like English as a Second Language)” | Hit, although I’m not positive they didn’t have this before Amazon Courses
• “For Kindle capabilities: I imagine the translation features getting a big enhancement. I think globalization is a focus for Amazon (as it may increasingly be for some other companies)” | Miss, although they did do a big thing with translating books into English for World Book Day press release
• “I also have a vague sense of Amazon doing something in transportation, something that makes the news. Autonomous delivery vehicles could certainly be one, as could much more delivery for other companies. I don’t know if ride-sharing is a space I’d enter, but they possibly could” | They bought a bunch of delivery airplanes, but I’ll call that a miss.

Overall, that was a great year!

Okay, let’s mess up my average with some new predictions. 😉 I’ll do three major ones, and ten speculations as I did last year:

Alexa gets the ability to send books to your devices

Alexa can play music and show us videos…why not books? My guess is that this might come in the form of a Goodreads (which Amazon owns) Alexa skill, although you wouldn’t have to enable it. You could say things like, “Alexa, buy the latest Stephen King book and send it to Bufo’s Kindle”. It would confirm what it was and that you wanted it. It could make recommendations, based on what’s happening with your Goodreads page (or more generically if you didn’t have one). It could tie into AmazonCharts: “Alexa, what books are hot?” There are a lot of possibilities here…you might hear Stephen King’s voice recommending something, for example. It could certainly help with management of your Kindle library…”Your Content and Devices” has never been that friendly an interface. The key point on this one: that Alexa can send e-books to your device

Amazon opens more brick-and-mortars, including an Amazon Go cashierless store for the public near the HQs

Amazon now has a number of brick-and-mortar operations, including the 4-Star stores (My trip to an Amazon 4-Star Store), AmazonBooks (The new Amazon Books opened in Walnut Creek California today…and I was there!), and Amazon Experience Centers. I think, in a sense like EPCOT was originally intended to be, Amazon may open centers near their headquarters (Seattle, New York City, Northern Virginia). You could experience the future of Amazon products there, and test new things…like an Amazon Go store. Tourists could go there. It would be a great Public Relations move for those new HQs (which will need to work hard on good PR). If there is a Go store open to the public near an HQ, I’ll count this as a hit next year

While not calling it HQ3, Amazon announces more localized complexes

There are Amazon presences in a lot of states, especially Fulfillment Centers, but I think they’ll do more with offices…or at least, we’ll become aware of more. This could also be outside the USA. I expect to see an article where someone points out how this is like the HQ search

Okay, speculations!

• Amazon reveals Alexa’s ability to speak more languages in the USA. This is tied into the program they’ve been doing where you can speak to Alexa in a foreign language. We probably get the option to choose another language, like Spanish, but they mention that it has some capabilities in a language which is not a top-ten language in terms of the number of speakers in the world
• Amazon does something with Max Headroom, tying into 1980s nostalgia 😉
• The Justice Department officially investigates Amazon as a monopoly or at least for unfair trade practices
• Amazon invests in some kind of book preservation organization…they work with them to make public domain books available to the public for free (through the Kindle store, but available elsewhere). They may also be helping with preserving non-public-domain books with authorization
• There are some Alexa-enabled wearables now, but something bigger happens with that…an Alexa watch or something like that. For this to be a hit, it needs to be mentioned in an Amazon press release
• There are over 10,000 Alexa-enabled devices by year’s end
• Amazon starts or partners with an existing Microsoft Teams/Slack type service. It’s designed for business, and ties into screened Amazon devices (tablets, Echo Shows). It’s designed so you can do instant video calls with coworkers, and might have text chat as well
• Amazon starts a podcasting platform
• Amazon does some sort of easy video publishing platform…probably through Echos and/tablets. “Alexa, make a video”. That lets you then publish that video for other people…maybe just friends and family, but also for the public. There may be some way to monetize it, but that might not happen the first year
• I’m not confident in this one, but an Amazon-branded robot may still happen in 2019 😉
• Bonus: we’ll get a major story about Amazon’s healthcare initiative, but that seems inevitable, so I won’t count it as a speculation…

What do you think? Any predictions and/or speculations for Amazon in 2019? Feel free to let me and my readers know what you think by commenting on this post.

Some of you are already into 2019, so…Happy New Year!

Join thousands of readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project!

* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get.  Shop ’til you help!  

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. 

 

The Year Ahead: 2018

The Year Ahead: 2018

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

Taking a look at last year’s post:

The Year Ahead: 2017

I see I did better than 2016’s  one out of three. 😉 That’s on the “predictions”, which are the big ones that I make, and those are the ones I measure. I also did pretty well with my “speculations”. The latter are much shorter, but I think they have saved some people from surprises.

Before I do that, I noticed that a “miss” for 2016 was a “hit” for 2017 (a waterproof Kindle). I think that’s happened before, where I’m a year ahead of time. I guess I’ve been overly confident in Amazon’s R&D…

Amazon VR

Miss. I’ve probably never talked about a prediction as much during the year, and I was really confident it would happen (maybe next year). Yes, Amazon did do some things with VR (including encouraging development), but I clearly was saying that they would have apps. I said, “The prediction is Amazon apps for VR…”. I’m in VAM (that’s what I call Virtual/Augmented/Mixed/Merged reality) a lot…just about every weekday. It’s quite frustrating that there isn’t an Amazon Prime Video app…it certainly means I watch a lot less of Prime Video than I would. I watch Netflix or Hulu, and the experience is so much better than my TV! Still, this is a miss.

More Bluetooth enabled Kindle EBRs

Partial hit. I said, “I’ll predict that the full current range of Kindle EBRs get refreshed with Bluetooth capable models.” The Oasis was updated with Bluetooth, but the Paperwhite wasn’t. However, I think my narrative description in that prediction was decent. I said, “With Alexa expanding rapidly (including some different type devices, at least one with a screen)…”

Copyright Reform

Hit. Me: “I think we’ll hear something concrete about copyright reform”. I was clear that I wasn’t sure anything would pass, but that it would be proposed. H.R. 1695, sponsored by Rep. Bob Goodlatte, introduced on March 23, restructures it and there was a lot of discussion about it…check this

Google search

If you want to follow the bill (it has passed the House), and read the actual text, you can do that here:

at Congress.gov

So, one and a half instead of one.

Here’s a look at my speculations:

• More than 10,000 Alexa skills at Amazon.com: “I think 25,000 is certainly possible, and I would be shocked by 100,000” | TechCrunch reported more than 25,000 on December 15 | HIT
• Barnes & Noble finds a new CEO | Demos Parneros became the CEO in April | HIT
• Alexa becomes capable of suggesting apps | HIT
• The USA Kindle store breaks five million titles | There are, at the time of writing, 5,941,859 | HIT
• Amazon announces a store presence in Cuba and/or Russia, or at least, plans for them | MISS
• Amazon continues to explore brick-and-mortar… | PARTIAL HIT. I said they’d open maybe three more Amazon Books stores (one opened near me, and others other places), but that they would also open Amazon Go (the “checkoutless store” to the public
• Drone delivery…in the UK before the USA | MISS
• A high level, known executive leaves Amazon for another company | In fact, three major executives from the entertainment arm left…but not all three specifically for another company (there were harassment accusations involved with at least one) | HIT
• George R.R. Martin releases the next “Game of Thrones” book | We know it’s called the Winds of Winter, but it wasn’t released yet | MISS

Well, the speculation, which is supposed to be wilder, did quite well!

I’m more trepidatious about predicting this year! It’s been a really strange year, and no reason not to see that continuing.

Amazon VAM

Yes, I’m recycling! 😉

I just can’t believe that there won’t be a way to watch Prime Video in VAM space before the end of 2018! That’s the prediction.It might be through an experience (which is what apps for VAM are called), or it might be through some sort of VAM browser system that lets us watch it like we would on a computer.

I do still think Amazon could open a VAM experiences store of some kind (by that I mean you can buy them through Amazon.com), and could develop some sort of authoring system people can use. Amazon branded hardware seems unlikely, but Amazon partnering with another hardware manufacturer might happen. I also expect more VAM content. Amazon did add AR (Augmented Reality) in a limited way to the shopping app…that might get a lot better.

I don’t think they will call it this, but maybe I should just call it VAMazon. 😉

Amazon opens a localized site for the Middle East

There has been quite a bit of commentary about the fact that Kindle books aren’t (legally) available in the Middle East. There have been some rumblings that Amazon would go into Saudi Arabia, and there are other possible countries. A search for “Arabic Kindle edition” at Amazon.com already yields more than 25,000 results, and there’s a very large market for Arabic (and some other Middle Eastern language) literature. I think philosophically, Amazon would also like to be in the Middle East in 2018…

Amazon curtails personal documents for Kindle

I’m not quite sure what this would look like, and I wouldn’t want to see it happen…but I think it could. I doubt there’s much use of it, outside of things like sending web articles (which I think would continue). There’s a lot of complications in dealing with personal documents (in this case, let’s mainly think about book-length documents from non-Amazon sources). I don’t think they’d take away what we already have, but might shut down adding new ones. They could also offer some different way to do it, where it would be more like publishing a video to YouTube, but being able to make it private or invitation only. They have already announced something similar for personal uploaded MP3s (but not ones that match what you’ve bought from Amazon).

Okay, let’s do some of that speculation!

• Amazon announces several frontrunners for its new headquarters (HQ2). They include deep South and East Coast cities, and at least one in Canada. We may not know officially by the end of 2018 which one will “win”…my guess is that it will be an East Coast city, like Boston…but I do think they’d like to go into a more economically depressed area. Hmm…some place devastated by hurricanes this year, while logistically hard, might be a place Amazon could really make a difference
• More deals are announced for Alexa in cars
• Alexa experience creators are given new ways to monetize…and advertising is even a possibility
• Jeff Bezos may start focusing on something other than Amazon. I don’t see that as a retirement, certainly, but maybe a big charity initiative and a reduction of time on “day to day” Amazon duties. Speculation begins on someone stepping more into the general CEO role…and diversity is a positive part of the story
• In terms of acquisitions…Amazon might buy a pharmacy chain, or some sort of healthcare provider. One possibility: Doctors on Demand, which does video visits. Huh…this just occurred to me, but they could do a competitor to MoviePass. That might tie into their movie/TV production work
• Amazon does something notable in Africa
• There are third-party Alexa-enabled robots now Alexa robot search at Amazon (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*). An Amazon-branded robot, which could be more of a toy, but might be able to do some practical things, could be introduced (or at least announced towards the end of the year)
• As to Kindles…I proposed that the cycle might be one evolutionary year (2017 was that) alternating with a revolutionary one, which would mean we’d get a new model in 2018. I’m not sure about that, though. Won’t surprise me if at least one of the models is retired in 2018…I could most likely see that being the Voyage, but I don’t think the Oasis has been a sales hit. I personally like the Paperwhite and the lowest priced one
• How about…Amazon entering the education game? By that I mean that they offer classes you can take through them. Not to replace a college, but on specific topics…maybe publishing, maybe programming for Alexa, perhaps some other not-specifically Amazon related things (like English as a Second Language)
• For Kindle capabilities: I imagine the translation features getting a big enhancement. I think globalization is a focus for Amazon (as it may increasingly be for some other companies)
• I also have a vague sense of Amazon doing something in transportation, something that makes the news. Autonomous delivery vehicles could certainly be one, as could much more delivery for other companies. I don’t know if ride-sharing is a space I’d enter, but they possibly could

That’s ten speculations…I’d better stop there!

What do you think? Any predictions and/or speculations for Amazon in 2018? Feel free to let me and my readers know what you think by commenting on this post.

Some of you are already into 2018, so…Happy New Year!

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You can be part of my next book, Because of the Kindle!

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Join thousands of readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project!

* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get.  Shop ’til you help!  

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

 

The Year Ahead: 2017

The Year Ahead: 2017

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right.  That said, I see that I did quite well with my “speculations” last year…not as well with the predictions. I count my hits and misses on the predictions, where I didn’t do as well, but I’m happy that someone who read my post last year wouldn’t have been surprised by some of the things that happened. 2017 is generally seen as likely to be volatile and unpredictable, but we’ll see. The new Administration does impact a lot of things that have to do with this blog. It’s intriguing that the President-Elect has a commercial history primarily tied up in the physical world, and has expressed skepticism about computers…and yet, used new media extensively and has an advisor who is coming from the digital world. Hard to say how that might affect e-books and publishing, but I’m thinking that I can still see some of the trends. First, let’s look at how I did in my predictions and speculations last year:

Prediction: “Kindle Splash”: Amazon introduces a water resistant Kindle

Miss. I have to admit, this shocks me the most (and might shock someone literally if they dropped a Kindle in the water). 😉 Why hasn’t Amazon done this, when Barnes & Noble and Kobo have? I don’t know…perhaps they don’t consider it important, or maybe it adds weight they don’t want. I was also wrong when I said, “While I would love to see Amazon introduce an EBR with audio (for text-to-speech, especially) that doesn’t feel to me like it is going to happen…I think that’s migrated to the tablets, although a stand-alone wearable for text-to-speech still seems possible.” They actually did, in a way, return TTS to EBRs: the most recent All-New Kindle E-reader – Black, 6″ Glare-Free Touchscreen Display, Wi-Fi – Includes Special Offers (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) has Bluetooth, which allows TTS to work by pairing wirelessly with an external speaker.

Prediction: Continued international expansion of content development and discovery

Hit. I specifically predicted that Kindle Unlimited (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) would expand beyond the USA, Canada, and Mexico, and that happened. It’s now also available in Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, United Kingdom…looks like everywhere except Holland. I suggested that Kindle Scout might expand to other countries, and I don’t think it did, but that wasn’t the main prediction.

Prediction: Amazon moves into the news business

Miss. This didn’t happen…and in retrospect, that makes some sense. The Washington Post and Amazon are separate, but joined by Jeff Bezos. The WaPo was really a presence this year, and perhaps that is a disincentive for Amazon to get strongly into the news business (although I suppose that the Echo’s Flash Briefing counts).

So, one out of three ain’t…great, but it isn’t terrible. 😉 This isn’t a case of three coin flips…there are hundreds of possibilities, so getting one right is decent. However, I expect my predictions to do better than that. The more speculative, well, speculations are a place where I feel like I take more chances, but let’s look at how they did for 2016:

• I don’t think the Apple case will get to the Supreme Court in 2016…that’s probably too fast. However, it is possible the Supremes would decline to consider it…I think, though, it doesn’t happen during this Presidential election year
  • The Supreme Court did decline to hear the case (probably impacted by the death of Justice Scalia)
• I think that equal collection legislation could happen in the next administration (whoever the President ends up being)…there is enough bilateral support for it, but nobody wants to give anybody ammunition during the election. Hold that off for 2017
  • Nothing did happen this year, so this one is right so far 🙂
• Barnes & Noble will continue to sink…I think they could limp through the year, even after what I think will be a disappointing holiday season report
  • They’ve been sinking, especially in regards to the NOOK. We’ll see what the holiday report is
• Prime continues to be a big priority, getting us more content
  • Yes, definitely…Prime Reading (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) is a huge example, but there were others
• Fire TV and the Echo will have great years. We’ll see the Echo “Skills  store” expand considerably
  • Exactly…the Skills store now has over 5,000 skills. I should have called it the “Alexa Skills” store, but even though thinking of it as the Echo hasn’t been around that long, I still need to break that habit
• Virtual Reality could have some book tie-ins…imagine going to Hogwarts in VR, or playing in The Hunger Games. However, I’m unconvinced VR is ready for Prime Time…although I think Microsoft’s Hololens will have industrial application
  • This didn’t happen as much as I thought…but more on that later in this post
• Amazon could have AI (Artificial Intelligence) produced content, which might tie into the news service above. They could also use AI to do book summaries on Amazon product pages
  • We aren’t aware of this happening…although it could be without us knowing it. 🙂
• Amazon could consolidate their three social reading sites: Goodreads, Library Thing, and Shelfari. I like Shelfari, but I think it would be most at risk of being absorbed
  • Yep…Shelfari was absorbed

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Time for me to take a deep breath and make predictions (and speculations) for 2017!

Amazon VR

I have had a Samsung Gear VR headset (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) for about a week now, and am completely sold on the technology. With my device, you put a SmartPhone (only certain models work with it) into a headset…basically, like a SCUBA mask. You aren’t seeing the world around you…and then you see a virtual world that knows where you are looking. It’s more sophisticated than that, but it’s an amazing experience.  I took it to family parties, and got the same sort of reactions with relatives from the age of about 13 to about 90.

It’s been made pretty easy to use…I would say it is considerably further along towards mainstream, smooth use than the Kindle was when it was first released. It knows when you put it on and take it off, for example…you don’t have to turn it on. The only problem I had was initially getting the phone in the headset: I should have realized I had to take my very slim silicon case off it, and I had to put in an adapter.

There was a notable lack of Amazon presence. Netflix had an app (and Hulu just added one in Beta)…and it’s like watching your show in a movie theatre, almost. VR may really hurt the big screen TV market. It’s a much better video experience for me to watch on my headset than in my “real life” family room. No question, we need Prime video.

Another thing I was seeking right away? A book reader. That might sound strange: read books in virtual reality? You bet! Virtual Reality (which doesn’t show you the real world at the same time) and Augmented Reality (which overlays virtual objects on the real world…you still what’s happening) will, I think, become a new normal for many people. Having an additional device to read books may seem redundant. Color for books in VR? Not an issue at all…that’s easy. Large print? As large as you want! Lighting? Never a problem. Walk into a book like Gumby? Entirely possible.

The possibilities for non-fiction are really exciting. Tap (or just stare at…when I’m on Samsung Internet in VR, I have “gaze select” where I can set a time for how long I stare at something before it clicks it) a graph in the book, and it becomes large enough for you to read. See a reference to a place and select it and walk around it (I’ve found walking around Chernobyl really fascinating).

I did find a reading app…you can see screen shots from it here:

chimera reader

It does ePUB books.

Unfortunately, as you can see in one of the screenshots, the page (just one page at a time) is directly in front of you…it sort of looks like a movie poster on a wall (without a wall). There is a nice looking library environment, but the reading experience (including how you turn the pages) is just not enjoyable.

Amazon could move into the VR app world this year. Prime Video is a no brainer, and Prime Music could also work well. The surprise one might be a Kindle app, which lets you read e-books and e-magazines. Imagine choosing to read in a comfortable sitting room, in a library, on a sailing ship, or on top of a mountain…whenever you wanted to do that. No distractions around you, and all of your books. They could make it look like you have the book in your hands…and maybe you choose an edition. Oh, picture this! You are reading your book…and sitting in the room with you, also reading (you aren’t interacting with them) are Mark Twain, Jane Austen, and Oscar Wilde!

Amazon VR software is my prediction this year. I do need to note that I was able to enter a world of The Man in the High Castle already, based on the Amazon TV series, but I think this will go beyond that.

What about VR hardware?

I won’t make that a solid prediction, but I certainly think it is possible. Amazon dominated in EBRs (E-Book Readers) when it solved the problem of having to have the device cabled to get books…they went wireless. The problem Amazon could solve in VR? Interoperability. They could make a headset which would fit either an Android or iPhone (and maybe Windows phones). That seems like it shouldn’t be too hard with some adjustable parts and an adapter. A phone-powered VR set is relatively inexpensive (mine sells for under $100, but has been on sale for a lot less than that), which is a good market spot for Amazon. There are two other concerns which Amazon could address. People worry about not being able to see the real world easily when in VR. My set already does “camera passthrough”, so I can see through the phone’s camera without taking off the headset (although it’s odd…sort of like you are underwater). There should be a one tap choice for that. It could also happen automatically in an emergency…your smoke alarm could trigger it, for example. The other thing is how isolating it can be…I haven’t done anything social in it, but Amazon could make it easier for you to see the other people around you (as avatars). Of course, that’s not an issue if it is AR (Augmented Reality) instead…the book appears to be in your hands, but you see the world around you.

My Kindle books anywhere I want, with me being in a reading spot of my choice? Yes, please.

The prediction is Amazon apps for VR, with a possibility of Amazon VR hardware. Ooh, and Alexa for my VR! I want that, too! (I know, greedy, greedy). 😉

An ancillary: a section at Amazon for VR “experiences” (games and apps), which they don’t have now.

More Bluetooth enabled Kindle EBRs

2016 was big for Kindle EBR models, and 2015 hadn’t been. Maybe they are going to start doing that…alternate years for Kindle EBR introductions of an evolutionary nature, rather than every year.

I’ll predict that the full current range of Kindle EBRs gets refreshed with Bluetooth capable models. That would be an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary change. With Alexa expanding rapidly (including probably some different type devices, at least one with a screen), and the possibility of VR hardware, this may not be the year for a whole new model in the EBR line-up. Yes, I’d like to see a water-resistant model, although I’m not going to predict that. 😉 I think we are likely to get new editions of current models rather than a brand new model. If any model is at risk of retirement, I think it’s the Voyage. I also think they may finally sell the Oasis without a requirement to buy an animal leather cover as well.

Copyright Reform

Even though it may be a busy first year of the administration, I think we’ll hear something concrete about copyright reform. There was recently this Judiciary Committee report, but that is just a set of recommendations. My guess is that the reforms will have to do with reshaping the office (clarifying the reporting structure, maybe eliminating the Registrar), and that there will be commerce-friendly reforms proposed…and set in motion. I won’t count this as a hit unless it looks like proposals have been accepted and it is a real plan. We could certainly see movement towards a fully searchable online database of copyright records. “Small claims court” for copyright? Maybe. I expect we will see proposals about “orphan books” (books that are still under copyright protection, but aren’t “in print” and for whom no rightsholder can be located to authorize an edition). I think this administration would make it easier to create those editions, even without locating the rightsholder.

We’ll go with those as the three predictions…and see if I do better than one out of three. 😉

Next, I’ll do some speculations…

• There will be more than 10,000 Alexa skills by the end of the year at Amazon.com…I think 25,000 is certainly possible, and I wouldn’t be shocked by 100,000
• Barnes & Noble finds a new CEO…and then maybe it pretty much implodes. It might also stumble along, or even largely jettison books and become more of a restaurant
• Alexa becomes capable of suggesting apps, so you don’t need to know what apps exist first. If you say, “Alexa, when does Oceanic Airlines Flight 815 arrive?” and you don’t have a flight tracking app installed, it will give you a list of possible apps to answer the question and you pick one and it answers it. It can’t just pick an app for you…app publishers wouldn’t like that
• The USA Kindle store breaks five million titles…before April 1st (I would actually figure February)
• Amazon announces a store presence in Cuba and/or Russia, or at least, plans for them
• Amazon continues to explore brick-and-mortar, opening the Amazon Go “checkout-less store” to the public, and maybe three more Amazon Books stores
• Drone delivery…in the UK before the USA (the latter may not happen this year, but I think the UK will…maybe another country too, Spain, perhaps)
• A high level, known executive leaves Amazon for another company
• George R.R. Martin releases the next “Game of Thrones” (A Song of Ice and Fire) book, and it becomes one of the top ten fiction books of the year

I think I’ve said enough…some of those are pretty out there! One thing I can say very confidently about 2017…it won’t be boring! 😉

What do you think will happen in 2017, in topics of interest to the readers of this blog? Do you want me to speculate about something I haven’t mentioned? Feel free to let me and my readers know by commenting on this post.

Join thousands of readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get. Shop ’til you help! By the way, it’s been interesting lately to see Amazon remind me to “start at AmazonSmile” if I check a link on the original Amazon site. I do buy from AmazonSmile, but I have a lot of stored links I use to check for things.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

 

 

The Year Ahead: 2016

The Year Ahead: 2016

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right.  I did really well predicting what would happen in 2014 (for example, I not only predicted Kindle Unlimited…I got the name right!), but spoiler alert 😉 I didn’t do as well for 2015 (I wasn’t as confident…gee, I was right about I…) 🙂 This is my fifth year predicting the year ahead, but progress isn’t always steady.

First, let’s see how I did do with my predictions and speculation for 2015:

At least one Big Five publisher joins Kindle Unlimited

Hit (but it’s really more of a glancing blow). I said this might happen in a limited way, and it did…but only with a couple of titles (see Round up #306: Overdrive “page turners”, KU gets a Big 5 publisher (slightly)). I’m being honest, and I’ll say that’s a lot less than I thought…but it still counts. I also suggested we might see more of the tradpubs (traditional publishers) and Amazon developing separate markets: that did happen (and I think it will continue to happen), but that wasn’t the main prediction.

The Amazon Echo is a hit and we see competitors

Hit. The Amazon Echo (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) is a hit (one of Amazon’s best sellers in electronics). In terms of a competitor, I’d argue that the latest Apple TV with onboard Siri falls somewhat into that category. I’d also call the LG SmartThinQ Hub (being shown at CES next week) a competitor…it’s a bit complex defining clearly what the Echo does. If, however, the LG device is talktec, then it’s a definite competitor…and it looks a lot like an Echo (although it has a small screen). Engadget post by Timothy J. Seppala

Amazon brings Dynamic Perspective to a few e-books

Miss. Just flat out didn’t happen.

Amazon does a digitization service for authors and for public domain books

Partial hit. While this didn’t happen with the mechanism I suggested, Amazon did release Kindle Convert (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) software on February 3rd. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to have done well (I tried it out..didn’t win my heart). There are 25 customer reviews at the time of writing, with an average of 2.0 stars out of 5 (which is really quite low). It is currently ranked at #3,353 in software…and #84 in Home Publishing software. That’s out of 2,979 home publishing titles (which include things like clip art and fonts)…that puts in the top three percent or so, but that doesn’t necessarily suggest a lot of sales. I think my idea of sending it to Amazon to convert it, and them getting an exclusive for a public domain title with some new added content (creating a new copyright) would work better. 🙂

A new text-to-speech device

Miss. I’m still holding out hope for the future…

I also had these speculations, which I didn’t call predictions:

• I said it seemed unlikely to me that Apple would win their appeal: they did lose an appeal, but it’s not really over yet
• I had an intuition that we might see something big with Stephen King, including “…could be something personal, although we’ll know about it”. That did happen: Stephen King given National Medal of Arts
• I thought we wouldn’t see a mainstream color EBR, and we didn’t
• My feeling was that the new Congress wouldn’t pass “…equal collection legislation, or do a lot of copyright reform”. They didn’t.

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Okay, time to make predictions for 2016!

“Kindle Splash”: Amazon introduces a water resistant Kindle

As I noted in my recent post, The Year in E-Books 2015, this year wasn’t really about new EBR (E-Book Reader) hardware. There was a whole new generation of Fire tablets, a second generation of Fire TV, and the rise of the Echo, but nothing revolutionary for non-backlit readers. During that time, the industry (which is pretty much Kobo and the NOOK, in addition to the Kindle) has introduced a feature the Kindle doesn’t have: water resistance. The NOOK Glowlight Plus was introduced October 21st of 2015 and was called “waterproof”. The Kobo Aura H20 could be ordered on September 1st, 2014. One question for me here is whether this would be released as a high end “Voyage 2”, an update of the very popular Paperwhite, or perhaps a new model (maybe the “Kindle Splash”, which sounds a bit like the “Kindle Touch”?). The Kobo was relatively expensive, but the NOOK was more middle-priced. While I would love to see Amazon introduce an EBR with audio (for text-to-speech, especially) that doesn’t feel to me like it is going to happen…I think that’s migrated to the tablets, although a stand-alone wearable for text-to-speech still seems possible.

Continued international expansion of content development and discovery

Kindle Unlimited (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) is now available in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, and look for that to expand to other markets. In fact, there is a placeholder page for it at the UK site: Kindle Unlimited UK. It shows a price of £7.99 a month, and while it says it is currently unavailable, it says to “stay tuned”. Similarly, Kindle Scout could begin in other countries.

Amazon moves into the news business

“What’s the news, across the nation? Amazon has information…”** Amazon has been producing their own content, and that’s been doing well and getting respect (some more than others, of course). Amazon is in the mix for Emmys and Golden Globes, and it’s possible Chi-Raq will get some sort of Oscar nomination recognition on January 14th. They have a music service and a video service. Hey, if I had an option to get all of my content through Amazon (not necessarily produced by them, but through them), I would. When I look for a segment that is still an opportunity for them, I think it’s news. I can already get news from our Amazon Echo (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*), and of course, there are news apps on our Amazon Fire TV (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) and my Kindle Fire HDX (now discontinued). What I could see them introducing is an Amazon news app, to compete with Flipboard (at AmazonSmile: benefit a non-profit of your choice by shopping*) and others. I see a couple of reasons for it. First, Amazon does not own the Washington Post…but Jeff Bezos does. 🙂 I could see real synergy there, with some WaPo branded content in the app. I see some of WaPo in Flipboard now. Another one is being able to get their own message out when there is a story in the news that involves them. Elon Musk got a lot more publicity for landing a rocket than Jeff Bezos did. There are issues involving drones, equal (tax) collection legislation, and even the report about Amazon’s working conditions. That doesn’t mean the app would be a mouthpiece…Amazon could produce content about media and tech (the things they sell), and then let you use the app to access your Twitter feeds (like Flipboard) and other sources. They could use this to partner with producers, which they seem to like doing. I hate to say it, but I could even see them folding their blog publishing into it…that might be a bad thing for me and some others, but I don’t think 90% of the blogs in the Kindle store are making anybody any money.

Those are my predictions, and I’ll do my hits and misses based on those. Now some musings…

• I don’t think the Apple case will get to the Supreme Court in 2016…that’s probably too fast. However, it is possible the Supremes would decline to consider it…I think, though, it doesn’t happen during this Presidential election year
• I think that equal collection legislation could happen in the next administration (whoever the President ends up being)…there is enough bilateral support for it, but nobody wants to give anybody ammunition during the election. Hold that off for 2017
• Barnes & Noble will continue to sink…I think they could limp through the year, even after what I think will be a disappointing holiday season report
• Prime continues to be a big priority, getting us more content
• Fire TV and the Echo will have great years. We’ll see the Echo “Skills  store” expand considerably
• Virtual Reality could have some book tie-ins…imagine going to Hogwarts in VR, or playing in The Hunger Games. However, I’m unconvinced VR is ready for Prime Time…although I think Microsoft’s Hololens will have industrial application
• Amazon could have AI (Artificial Intelligence) produced content, which might tie into the news service above. They could also use AI to do book summaries on Amazon product pages
• Amazon could consolidate their three social reading sites: Goodreads, Library Thing, and Shelfari. I like Shelfari, but I think it would be most at risk of being absorbed

What do you think? Do you have predictions for 2015? Feel free to let me and my readers know by commenting on this post.

Join over a thousand readers and try the free ILMK magazine at Flipboard!

* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get.  Shop ’til you help!  

** This is a reference I suspect almost no one will get…especially without hearing it being sung. I was inspired by Laugh-in: “What’s the news, across the nation? We have got the information….”

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

The Year Ahead: 2015

The Year Ahead: 2015

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

First, let’s see how I did with my predictions and speculation for 2014:

Kindle Unlimited: Amazon does an “all you can eat” plan

Hit. I not only got it right, I predicted the name! I was off on the pricing, but this still a definite hit.

New lines of hardware from Amazon

Hit. I predicted the Fire TV with “…I think it’s more likely that we see some television solution from Amazon (something with Miracast, perhaps, to work with the Fires), than a bunch of radical new tablets obsoleting this year’s. Adding a rear camera to a 7″ tablet, for example.” That also predicted the camera which they did add. I also thought we might see a phone, and we did.

A major  change at Barnes & Noble 

Hit. Barnes & Noble is splitting off the NOOK business from the retail business.

Kobo makes a significantly new EBR

Hit. I said, “Kobo might go with a $200 or $250 luxury EBR with something outstanding like that,” and they introduced a waterproof EBR (E-Book Reader), the Kobo Aura H20 at about $180…close enough to claim it.

Legal recognition of personal use digitization

Miss. I said I was going out on a limb on this one…I think we are getting closer, but I’m calling this a miss.

Kindle Worlds expands

Hit. I said, “I’m going to guess that Kindle Worlds gets at least three more major licenses during 2014.” New worlds included Veronica Mars, G.I. Joe, series from Barbara Freethy and H.M. Ward, and more.

—

Wow! I did so well last year, I’ve intimidated myself. 😉 That’s my best year to date, and it will be hard to top.

At least one Big Five publisher joins Kindle Unlimited

This one feels very shaky…I could see them just hunkering down. However, I do think this is possible, especially if it is in a limited way. For example, Macmillan might just make some backlist titles, but not the frontlist. I would like to see this happen. If it doesn’t, we may see stronger divergence between the tradpubs (the traditional publishers) and Amazon, with them both developing strong but separate markets over time (that wouldn’t all happen next year).

The Amazon Echo is a hit and we see competitors

Okay, this isn’t exactly an e-book prediction, but it will impact Amazon and that impacts e-books. Not only that, but there is some interaction now between the Echo and books (some people listen to audiobooks through it via Bluetooth, and text-to-speech may work through it). I’m not sure that someone like Apple or Samsung would step into the ambient computing market as soon as next year, but there might be a knock-off type less expensive product. In the future, I think it may include a scanning system to recognize things (perhaps incorporating Firefly) but not for next year.

Amazon brings Dynamic Perspective to a few e-books

I don’t think Amazon is done with the Fire Phone (we might even see a second version next year), and I don’t think they are done with its two big features: dynamic perspective and Firefly. Dynamic perspective (I have fun calling it “dy-per”) gives you the illusion of 3D: as your head moves, you see different parts of the scene. It requires many cameras, so they can’t just do it with a special book file on a tablet…but I think they might do something like pop-up books for the Fire Phone or for something else with the camera array.

Amazon does a digitization service for authors and for public domain books

This is another one of those pie-in-the-sky predictions, but I could see it happening. You own the rights to a book, or you have a public domain book. You send it to Amazon, and they digitize it, probably including some formatting (such as an active table of contents). You publish it exclusively with Amazon (they’ll require you to do something to generate a new copyright for a public domain title, such as adding new illustrations or an introduction), and there is a split (maybe 30% Amazon). The exclusivity might be only for six months. This would give Amazon a lot more exclusives, and would put them in the role of preserving literature and getting it public distribution. I suppose they could even do a digitization service for public domain books which they make available for free…that would be a lot of good will. Maybe call it…”Kindle Phoenix”? “Kindle Evolution”? “Kindle Vault?” The last one might have the least chance of offending people. 😉

A new text-to-speech device

I’m not quite sure how, but I have a sense that Amazon might bring back text-to-speech in something other than a tablet. It could be adding it to an EBR (which is where I’d like to see it), but it could be a wearable. I could see a watch that did music, audiobooks, and TTS from files: you wouldn’t sight read on it, it just did the audio (and it could connect to an external speaker for better sound or you could use earphones).

—

Well, I’m not all that confident with those…we’ll see! Now for some that don’t count: I’m not sure which way to go with Apple: I think it’s possible they’ll win their appeal, but that seems somewhat unlikely to me. I have a vague sense that something major may happen with Stephen King…that’s an innovative person who will take some chances. Might be opening a bookstore, might be something with virtual reality…could be something personal, although we’ll know about it. I’d be surprised by a mainstream color EBR next year. I think the new Congress may not pass equal collection legislation, or do a lot of copyright reform, but time will tell.

What do you think? Do you have predictions for 2015? Feel free to let me and my readers know by commenting on this post.

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* I am linking to the same thing at the regular Amazon site, and at AmazonSmile. When you shop at AmazonSmile, half a percent of your purchase price on eligible items goes to a non-profit you choose. It will feel just like shopping at Amazon: you’ll be using your same account. The one thing for you that is different is that you pick a non-profit the first time you go (which you can change whenever you want)…and the good feeling you’ll get.  Shop ’til you help!  

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

The Year Ahead: 2014

The Year Ahead: 2014

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 

First, let’s see how I did with my predictions and speculation for 2013:

Resolution of the Agency Model in the USA

Hit. I did think Apple might settle, and they didn’t, but overall, I was right that it ended.

Another Major Merger Announced

Miss. I thought after Penguin and Random House we’d likely see two more big publishers merge, and it didn’t happen.

Nothing Really Groundbreaking in Hardware

Hit. This year was much more about services.

More Well-Known Publications Going Digital Only

Hit. The Onion and PC World went to digital.

Author Cooperatives

Miss. This still seems like a good idea to me: brand name authors banding together in publishing companies, perhaps luring over their editors…but it didn’t happen.

Direct Distribution from Publishers

Miss, I think. 🙂 I expected traditional publishers to prominently allow you to buy books directly from them…either through their sites or social media. This doesn’t look like it has happened to me.

Book Production Services

Miss, sort of. It’s available on CreateSpace for p-books: Amazon Professional Publishing Services. I’m not sure that wasn’t there before 2013. I thought we’d see it for e-books.

Social Structures from Amazon

Hit, if you count them buying Goodreads.

Account Management Improvement

I’m going to call this mixed. Cloud Collections were intended to be a step in this direction.

Subscription “All you can eat” plans

People besides Amazon did this (Scribd, Oyster). I was thinking Amazon might, so I’ll call this mixed.

Okay, let’s make some guesses about 2014!

Kindle Unlimited: Amazon does an “all you can eat” plan

I think this has become a lot more likely. Amazon already has it for kids, and rumor is that they’ve been talking to publishers about it. They could open it with mostly independently published books, but they would hopefully get HarperCollins or some other tradpub (traditional publisher) to join in. You’d be able to read as many books as you wanted out of a select group. I could see this being discounted with Prime, or available without it. Let’s say… about$20 a month without Prime, $5 with it. Once people become Prime members, they spend a lot more money, so this could work economically.

New lines of hardware from Amazon

Sure, I expect a new Paperwhite, and something new in the tablets. I do think the current line-up of tablets was a success, but they could add a few things. I think it’s more likely that we see some television solution from Amazon (something with Miracast, perhaps, to work with the Fires), than a bunch of radical new tablets obsoleting this year’s. Adding a rear camera to a 7″ tablet, for example. Voice commands could definitely be in the offing. We might see a phone as well. I think it will feel more evolutionary than revolutionary for tablets and EBRs, and then whole new lines, like the TV thing and a phone. In other words, I think they’ll start building off of the Kindle Fire HDX as a hub. It does already interact with non-Fire Kindles, by the way,  through  Whispersync and Cloud Collections, to name two things.

A major  change at Barnes & Noble 

My timelines are sometimes accelerated (I predict something for one year, and it happens the next), but I think it’s time. Does that mean they shutter the stores, like happened with Borders? Not necessarily…but it could mean that there is a major change in ownership or philosophy (they might only carry a few books for example), or, a bankruptcy with a possibility of recovery. Sure, they’ve just given their CFO (Chief Financial Officer) a three-year deal, but I don’t think B&N will look the same after this year. Declining sales and the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) investigation can’t be offset by cutting costs. What about Books-A-Million? They are in challenging times as well. I expect we’ll hear that independent stores have been doing better, though, so the brick-and-mortar bookstore isn’t endangered at this point.

Kobo makes a significantly new EBR

I think Kobo scored with the more expensive, sort of luxury Aura HD EBR (E-Book Reader) this year. I think they may again go for something higher end that puts them in a different niche than Amazon. For example, they could introduce a color non-backlit device. Amazon has probably had the ability to do that, but the cost to the consumer would have been higher than Amazon thinks is viable for their market. Kobo might go with a $200 or $250 luxury EBR with something outstanding like that.

Legal recognition of personal use digitization

This one is out on a limb. 🙂 I think the dismissals of the cases against Google making digital copies without rightsholder permission may open the door for a decision that makes it clearly legal for individuals to digitize their own copies for their own use. This, in turn, may lead to methodologies that make it much easier, perhaps including more services that do it for you. 1DollarScan does it now, but I’m not entirely convinced that they couldn’t be challenged legally, in the case of books not in the public domain. If the Supreme Court, perhaps by refusing to hear a case, made it clear that book digitization for personal use was legal (similar to using time-shifting technology for television), that might really create an industry.

Kindle Worlds expands

I’m going to guess that Kindle Worlds gets at least three more major licenses during 2014. I think the Kurt Vonnegut thing will point the way. Once it looks like that has been a success and hasn’t hurt the market for the canonical works, others will join in.

Those are a few things I see…we’ll check back next year and see how I did. 😉 What do you think? Feel free to tell me and my readers by commenting on this post. Amazon can be counted on for something surprising…for example, what companies/websites do you think they’ll buy next year?

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

The Year Ahead: 2013

The Year Ahead: 2013

This is my annual post where I look ahead to the next year. I’ll make some predictions, but I’ll warn you ahead of time…I don’t always get things right. 😉 I do think I’m getting better at it, although there are always some surprises.

First, let’s take a look at what I predicted for 2012.

I had two categories: predictions and speculation.

Here were my predictions for 2012:

More than one new Kindle Fire

Status: hit

I got several elements of this correct, which is nice. 🙂 I thought that they would bring out a 3G/4G model (I only said 3G, but close enough) of the Kindle Fire, and that they might partner with AT&T for a data plan. I thought a more fully-featured 7″ would be more expensive, and I was wrong there, but I was right about a camera (although I said “cameras”) and GPS. I thought we might see more than one larger screen Kindle Fire, and we did. I wasn’t completely right, but I did pretty well.

Continued support for Reflective Screen hardware…and a wi-fi large screen

Status: mixed

They did continue to support reflective screen hardware, and both Barnes & Noble and Amazon introduced frontlit models. They did not, though, introduce a larger wi-fi reflective screen device (replacing the DX) as I thought they might.

Current TV through Prime

Status: miss

I thought we might get current TV shows within a day or two of their broadcast through the Prime “no additional cost” video, and we didn’t. We can watch current TV as it is on using US TV Free, but that’s not the same thing.

Barnes & Noble hardware does well, Kobo doesn’t, mini iPad

Status: mixed

I got the description of the mini iPad pretty well (“…I think Apple will likely come out with a “mini” (or micro or nano  or whatever) iPad that competes more directly with the Fire. I would guess it would still cost more money, but be cheaper than the current generation.”), but I think I underestimated Kobo and overestimated the NOOK line. We’ll get a better idea on that when we see the fourth quarter and annual numbers.

Voice command

Status: miss

I can’t voice control my Kindle Fire, unfortunately. Oh, there are a couple of apps with voice recognition, but this didn’t happen in the way I thought it might.

For my speculation category, which I considered to be on less solid ground, I’d actually say I did better than on the predictions.

Governments make more public domain titles available

Status: unknown

I haven’t really looked at this carefully enough to evaluate it.

E-book sales growth rate eases

Status: hit

What we are hearing is that the growth rate slowed down…it was still huge, which is what I suggested, but slower than it had been.

Control over what is on each Kindle

Status: hit

Kindle FreeTime did pretty much exactly what I thought might happen. Even though that is only on the Kindle Fire line, that’s still a hit in my book.

Color reflective screens

Status: miss

These are not yet in the commercial market, and it may be that they are missing the window, but we’ll see. If a color screen reflective device was cheap enough, it might push out grayscale ones.

Kindles get better social features

Status: miss

We still don’t have something like “your friends like”…I do think this has to happen with Amazon, but it didn’t last year.

Challengers to traditional publishing

Status: hit

I mentioned Amazon’s moves into traditional publishing as part of this, and though bookstore boycotts affected it, the success is clearly there.

Blended media and synergistic marketing

Status: miss

I thought Kindle Fire usable books would get integrated audio and video…and Whispersync for Voice isn’t exactly what I was suggesting (although I suppose that’s in the same category).

Legal battles

Status: mixed

I was too broad on this. I was pretty good with the Agency Model, but I thought we might also get equal collection legislation (a nationwide sales tax policy), and we didn’t. Also, the Google settlement is still dragging on..

Advertising on the Kindle Fire

Status: hit

Yes, they got advertising and I described it as an opt in/opt out situation, and that was pretty close. It didn’t initially lower the price (and that matches what I said), because there was no option to get a Fire without it at first.

Amazon phone

Status: undetermined

I was just sort of floating the idea, and didn’t really make a prediction.

Now on to

2013 Predictions and Speculation (I’m combining the two)

Resolution of the Agency Model in the USA

I think we’ll see Macmillan and Apple settle with the Department of Justice. If they don’t, the court case could drag on past 2013, but I think that’s less likely.

Another major merger announced

My guess is that the Random Penguin (I can’t resist calling it that) merger is approved. That would leave, among the US Big Six: Macmillan, Simon & Schuster, HarperCollins, and Hachette. I think Macmillan and either Simon & Schuster or HarperCollins bring the most diversity, but Joe Sargent (the Macmillan CEO) is a stubborn person who might not want to make it happen. Simon & Schuster and HarperCollins would be a real powerhouse…but I do see Macmillan in the mix somehow. I’ll say…Macmillan and Simon & Schuster as most likely. If that happened, would the other two also team up? Could be…and there could certainly be other media/tech companies in the mix. I could even, by the way, see NOOK/Kobo talks getting in the news.

Nothing really groundbreaking in hardware

I’m scared about this one! I think this is a consolidation year. I wouldn’t see a large screen wi-fi or a front-facing camera on a Kindle Fire as ground-breaking. This year, we had the frontlit reflective screens, and that’s truly significant. I’m just not picturing something like that. More features, prices coming down, yes. I think we may see a move towards wat I now dub the “phablet”, (which might get simplified to “fablet”). That’s something with a larger than regular cellphone screen, but it makes calls. We already see some advertising around that with the Samsung Galaxy Note. I can make and receive phone calls on my Kindle Fire using Magic Jack and Skype, but I think that’s just the beginning. In the future, I’d see us getting reflective screen cellphones, flexible displays (wrap a cellphone around your wrist, unfold a phone into a bigger display), eye and gesture tracking (so you can do things without touching a screen), and wireless transmission of power to our devices, but none of those market ready in 2013.

More well-known publications going digital only

I think we definitely see that this coming year…the kind of things that make the news.

Author cooperatives

As US copyright begins returning rights to authors for books published in 1978, I think we may see brand name authors getting together to form a company, sort of like the old United Artists or Dreamworks. Pottermore has to suggest that controlling distribution could work, and if you got, say, Stephen King, Anne Rice, and John Grisham together, they could certainly lure (and pay) top notch editors. I think readers would go for that, too. If you don’t need book factories, as you did in the days of paper, this gets much easier. It would allow the authors to bring over their editors, and I think that may be where the real loyalty lies (as opposed to loyalty really being with the publisher, especially as the heads of the publishing companies change).

Direct distribution from publishers

They have got to be looking at this. The periodical publishers talked about it, but I think social media has grown in a way that makes it more possible for book publishers. People will buy a book from a tweet, and that’s a way to get the distribution you need without a storefront.

Book production services

I think Amazon could do very well with software and services to help fledgling writers. Pay a fee, get editing, proofreading, cover design, that sort of thing. I think other people will do it, too, but I think Amazon could seriously get into this business. Maybe require that Amazon gets a “first look” for a one year exclusive. Exclusive content will continue to be important to Amazon, and they’ve promoted that a lot with KDP Select.

Social structures from Amazon

I’m going to keep saying this until it happens. 😉 They need to set up some way for us to join groups and see reviews and reading habits from those groups. Those could be friends/family/coworkers, or could be famous people.

Account management improvement

Kindle FreeTime and Whispercast clearly are a move in this direction. I think  we will see more ways to send a book to more devices, and to limit content on different devices, on the same account. This has to move past the concept of “parental control”.

Subscription “all you can eat plans”

Kindle FreeTime Unlimited could be a test case for this, as was the limited test of Prime on a monthly basis. I don’t strongly think this will happen, but I think it may be an alternative that attracts some segments (a “romance” or  “science fiction” plan, for example).

Well, there you go. I’m not all that confident about these, but we’ll see. As always, I predict there will be things I haven’t predicted. 🙂

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog.

The Year Ahead: 2012

The Year Ahead: 2012

I recently did my annual review for 2011. As has been the case in the past, the radical changes are both hardware and what I can loosely call software…but actually involves all sorts of cultural elements, not just written computer code.

For the year ahead, it feels like the world of e-books is moving into a new stage. Late in the year will give us the fifth “birthday” for the Kindle. There were millions of Kindles sold…in December alone. I think the resistance to e-books among serious readers has been overcome, for the most part. They are the mainstream.

That’s both good and bad.

It’s good, because more resources will be committed to e-books. More of an effort will be made to secure the rights to older titles. Global availability will have a great value.

It’s bad, because we are getting past that early adopter phase. Newbies now expect it to be a mature medium. An early adopter is fine with there being a few flaws…you don’t set off to sail around the world with Columbus and expect a luxury suite. 😉 The expectation now is that an EBR (E-Book Reader) should work flawlessly…certainly, as well as a SmartPhone or laptop computer. That may be unrealistic at this point. It also means that things are starting to become established, and that inevitably concentrates power. Spill a bag of dog food on the floor so it goes everywhere. Even the lowliest beta dog can snag a piece or two in the beginning. Shortly, though the alpha will have claimed a large pile…a lot more than the alpha can eat. Then, the beta depends on the alpha. We’re getting to that point, I think.

As I do each year, let me start out by looking at the predictions I made last year for this year (2011). Then, I’ll go out on a limb and make some guesses for 2012.

An Amazon Android Tablet

Status: hit

At this point, the Kindle Fire may seem like it was an inevitability, but that wasn’t the case when I was writing about it nine months before it was announced. I said:

• could be a really big success
•  a backlit, web-surfing, movie-streaming tablet
• They’d promote it for their streaming video service, among other things.
• would appeal outside of serious readers
• It wouldn’t be a replacement for a Kindle for that serious reader group, but an addition to it
• it wouldn’t be the top tablet, but there would be a place for it

I feel good about this one. I said I had hoped it wouldn’t be called a Kindle, but I didn’t really make that a prediction, just a desire. I thought there might be a larger screen version (which I said might be a negative for there being a next gen Kindle DX…there wasn’t one). Again, I didn’t make that a prediction header, like I did for an Amazon Android tablet.

The Agency Model goes away

Status: miss

Not only did this “publisher sets the prices” model not go away, the last of the Big Six, Random House (which I consider a thought leader) followed the rest of the group and adopted it.

Ruling on the Google Settlement/Orphan Books Legislation

Status: miss

Oh, come on! 😉 Judge Chin put this off…again.

E-book Market and the Kindle store

Status: mixed

I thought there might be two million titles in the USA Kindle store, and we’re not close to that. However, I did predict more non-English books, and said, ” E-magazines will gain a strong presence on tablets.  Mass market paperbacks will continue to see market share erosion.” Those two pieces are really solid. I thought that e-books might be 25% of the USA publishing market. We don’t know that yet…we’ll get the figures from the Association of American Publishers in the next two months (maybe soon).  The last figure I’ve seen from them was for September, and e-books were $80.3m out of $576.6m…that’s about 13%. I said that e-books might be 25% by the end of the year…and I think that’s possible still. Many of the e-books are sold outside of the AAP. I think the holiday season will have been heavily e-books, although a certain biography did very well in paper.

More text-to-speech access

Status: hit

This has happened, I’m pretty sure, and in a manner similar to what I suggested…a quiet moving away from blocking the text-to-speech access.

Web-E-Books become more popular

Status: uncertain

Amazon did introduce its Cloud Reader, and I could claim this as a hit, certainly. No question that many people downloaded it. I’m not sure, though, that the idea was embraced in the way I was suggesting. Amazon didn’t announce this as a success at the end of the year. We didn’t see tablets being marketed specifically with web-e-book reading being a feature.

More active content

Status: hit

Of course, having the Kindle Fire and apps makes this unquestionable, but there was still more and more active content added for RSKs (Reflective Screen Kindles).

Enhancements to the Kindle

• Parental controls: this was a hit for the Fire, but they didn’t really implement it like I thought they might. I’m going to call this mixed. I said, “…people will start  complaining in a big way about this if their kids are reading pornography”, and the people complaining part was right 🙂
• Use of the microphone on the K3: miss
• Better descriptions of the books on the Kindle and better integration with Shelfari: mixed. There was definitely better integration with Shelfari, but they didn’t really improve the descriptions on the device…in fact, they eliminated them altogether on the Fire. I was expecting more social features…something like NOOK Friends

I do want to take credit for a mid-year hit before I move on to 2012. 🙂 In this post, I was guessing what Amazon was going to announce. I said:

My guess is that it may be several things.

• A Kindle backlit tablet (which might be called the Amazon Kindle Fire, but we’ll see). I would guess they’ll announce a low-priced one (on the order of $200…maybe $189, to take the price point of the currently most expensive Kindle that isn’t the DX) and maybe another one with free Prime for maybe $239 (to underprice the NOOKColor by $10…they like that)
• Two new reflective Kindles, one an entry level ($129?) which is stripped down (I don’t know if they can do that with a touchscreen, but maybe), and one that is touchscreen and more expensive…maybe even a larger screen (time to bench the DX)
• Prime E-Book Lending, so Amazon Prime members can read very select e-books for free (again, I think that would be included with the tablet…maybe with a more expensive flavor, as I indicated above)
• Price drops on existing Kindles (including the K3 wi-fi only ad-supported going under $100)

Overall, that was a lot more accurate than most tech writers were saying. 🙂 I was happy about it.

Now on to…

2012

Predictions

More than one new Kindle Fire

I do think we’ll see a larger screen Kindle Fire…around ten inches. My guess is that it will come soon…announced before the end of January, probably. However, I also think we’ll see another seven-inch Kindle Fire…with more features (GPS, cameras), and that it will be more expensive.  My guess is we’ll see at least two of the larger screen…and that 3G (not free 3G) will be part of this. We may see Amazon offering data plans themselves, and they could partner with AT&T on this. I think it likely, though, that they will let people go with different carriers. There were a lot of complaints I saw from people who couldn’t get their Kindle Fires to connect with their wi-fi, and 3G would resolve that issue. I’m not convinced this means a lower-priced Kindle Fire, but they have surprised me with lower prices before.

Continued support for Reflective Screen hardware…and a wi-fi large screen

The biggest selling, gifted, and wished for item of the holiday season, was the Kindle Fire…but the best reviewed electronic item according to Amazon was the $79/$109 Kindle (which I call the Mindle). I think we’ll see a Mindle-esque, stripped down, large screen RSK (Reflective Screen Kindle). If they can get the price sub $150 (which I think they can), for a wi-fi only large-screen RSK, I think that can be a good seller for them.

Current TV through Prime

In a recent homepage letter (those ones that appear at Amazon.com), Jeff Bezos mentioned that there were more interesting things coming for Prime members. Amazon is willing to spend big bucks to get content for Prime…because I think they make a lot of money off physical items bought through Prime. As I’ve said before, I think their economic model going forward (not counting web services…just in the area of retail goods) is about “diapers and windshield wipers”. Being able to watch a current TV show within a day or two of broadcast as part of your paid Prime membership would be a big incentive. It could actually cut into the  DVR (Digital Video Recorder) market. They might also do some kind of original programming. I’m less sure about this, but I think there might be some kind of Prime deals with magazines and apps. The ability to borrow an app (even with a lot of restrictions)…or maybe have a one or two-day trial period would appeal to folks. Same thing with magazines and newspapers…read one free issue a month (and you can’t do the same magazine twice in a year). That would sell a lot of magazines subscriptions in the long run. I know you can do a fourteen-day trial now, but this would not autorenew…and maybe they could do back issues this way. Publishers would love a market for back issue e-periodicals, I think.

Barnes & Noble hardware does well, Kobo doesn’t, mini iPad

It wouldn’t surprise me if people were more satisfied with the NOOK Tablet than they were with the Kindle Fire. It did cost more, but my guess is that it hit the expectations better for a lot of purchasers. I’m expecting that we’ll hear good reports on how well that sold. I don’t think the Kobo Vox caught on very well…it just didn’t get into the news cycles. I’m guessing those sales are disappointing. I think Apple will likely come out with a “mini” (or micro or nano  or whatever) iPad that competes more directly with the Fire. I would guess it would still cost more money, but be cheaper than the current generation.

Voice command

No doubt, the coolest tech development for many people this year was Siri, the natural language engine on the new iPhone. It certainly works imperfectly, but that wasn’t the only computer language use in the news…there was Watson understanding the Jeopardy questions. The measurable part of this prediction will be that in 2012, Amazon, Apple, and/or Barnes & Noble will release a mobile device with at least a six-inch screen that can take voice commands. I think we are going to begin to expect this from our tech. I think it will be beyond a carefully phrased, “Open A Christmas Carol”. I’m not sure we’ll quite be at “What’s new in sci fi?” level this year, but maybe. I think we should be at, “Open the last book”, though.

===

Speculation

This is new this year…I’m splitting out less measurable, more trend thoughts into a different section. I’m also less sure about these.

Governments make more public domain titles available

Project Gutenberg is absolutely to be lauded, and the loss of founder Michael S. Hart was one of the sad stories this year. I think, though, that governments are going to spend tax dollars making mainstream classics available for digital download. Len Edgerly of The Kindle Chronicles did a very interesting interview with Robert Darnton about the Digital Public Library of America. I may be a year early on this prediction, but I do think some other countries will move more quickly than we do. The British Library is definitely moving this way. This one will be hard to measure for success…but I think we may see some of the private industry public domain repository start to fade as this trend increases.

E-book sales growth rate eases

I think the growth rate continues to be good, but I think it may stop accelerating as much. Mass market paperbacks will continue to lose market share, and I would think we may see some famous imprints stop publishing MMPs (and that will get some discussion in the blogosphere). Hardback sales will also decrease (in terms of unit sales), but I do think they increase in price…wouldn’t surprise me if that was more than ten percent for bestsellers.

Control over what is on each Kindle

I think this has to happen in some way in 2012. I’m not quite sure what the implementation will be…but I think parents/legal guardians will be able to control what kids can see on their devices from the archives.

Color reflective screens

I think may be seen as a bit of a ho hum when it finally arrives this year…but I know I could be wrong on that (I don’t care that much about color). This would be color on a non-backlit screen. I’m guessing it will be in the market in the USA…the devices will sell, but it will be hard to keep the price low enough compared with a tablet that people don’t just go with that.

Kindles get better social features

I predicted that last year, and it didn’t really happen…but I’m still looking for it this year. This might be some kind of easy tie-in with your Facebook friends or Google Plus circles,. They could do something like NOOK friends: I do think Amazon would rather “grow their own” than just tie-in to existing systems.  You’d be automatically sharing books you finished, notes, getting recommendations (“Your friends like…”) and so on.

Challengers to traditional publishing

Independent publishing, especially through platforms like Kindle Direct Publishing, will become more accepted. One big story for me this year will be keeping an eye on the traditional publishing Amazon is doing. They’ve invested a lot (some financially, some emotionally, some strategically) in their imprints: Montlake for romance, Thomas & Mercer for mysteries/thrillers, 47North for science fiction/fantasy/horror, and more. We’ll get a sense this year about how that is going. Will they make bestseller lists? Will they attract more big names?

Blended media and synergistic marketing

Books with audio and video? Sure…I think that will happen on the Amazon tablet(s), just as it does on iPads. However, I think we may also see books getting into more places. It may seem silly, but I can see reading a book on my TV screen while I do aerobics on my Wii Fit.

Legal battles

I’m now thinking we may see equal collection legislation (setting a national sales tax policy, but not a new national sales tax) passed this coming year..but with it going into effect after the Presidential election. That might be a way to get it done. I think the lawsuits about the Agency Model will settle out of court…and I hope the Agency Model really does end in 2012 or 2013, but that’s hard to say. I think the European Union will make find the Agency Model to be illegal.  I think Amazon and M-Edge will become buddies again. 🙂  The Google Settlement may have a resolution…or it may get postponed or tossed out. By the time it gets done, it could be that government digitizing give Google less bargaining power on it.

Update: I should talk about two more things…Amazon selling advertising on the Kindle Fire and an Amazon/Kindle branded cellphone. I think the former will definitely happen…and I have gotten reports that suggest they may be testing it now. I don’t think they’ll give us a price break on a Kindle Fire with ads…but it might be an opt in/opt out situation. I suggested a while back that Amazon might eventually do a phone, and there has been some talk about that. It’s possible they’ll announce one in 2012, but I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other.

Well, there you go! Predictions and speculation. As always, I predict there will be things I haven’t predicted. 🙂

What about you? What do you think is in store in 2012? Have I underestimated Kobo? Does Amazon overspend, and worry investors? Do mass market paperbacks make a comeback? What happens to brick-and-mortar bookstores? Used bookstores? How do the traditional publishers fare? Feel free to let me know by commenting on this post.

Happy new year!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the I Love My Kindle blog.